Development of a simulation framework to analyze synergies and trade-offs between different multiple production goals and related carbon dynamics in the sub-tropical forests of China (Teilprojekt im BMBF-Verbundprojekt “Lin²Value")

China is obliged to fulfill its commitments in the international Climate Policy Arena (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, UNFCCC) in line with national regulations (12th Five year plan, FYP) to reduce the CO₂-intensity of its national economy by approx. 40% from 2005 to 2020. The plan is to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions with  more efficient use of nitrogen fertilizers in agriculture, and by increasing the wood and carbon stocks in forests. Sustainable Forest Management (SFM) not only increases carbon stocks but also contributes to increased stand stability, higher timber value and enhanced biodiversity. SFM will also lower the risk of wind, pest and snow damage leading to the release the carbon stored in forests (non-permanence). However, regulatory policies are supposed to enable the large-scale implementation of multipurpose forest management which requires some certainty over decision making processes given the long-term impacts of management in forests. Hence, an integrated simulation framework is needed to better understand ecosystem dynamics, in particular forest growth dynamics and its impact on carbon accumulation, forest carbon footprints (harvested wood products, HWP) and its trade-offs and synergies between different management goals. It is essential to understand the interactions between different forest management regimes and risks (extreme methodological events and human induced risks), which are likely to change with stand age, stand structure, species compositions and site conditions.

This WP will test and integrate existing process based models to assess forest growth and carbon accumulation dynamics of the different silvicultural management strategies proposed in WP 2a with forest product based accounting models and analyze abiotic, biotic and economic risks. The proposed simulation framework will enable scientists, forest professionals and policy makers to analyze synergies and trade-offs between different multiple production goals and related carbon dynamics in the sub-tropical forests of China.

The following scientific activities are proposed:

• Testing of existing process-based forest growth models for their appropriateness in sub-tropical China and selection and calibration of the most suitable one for the dominant species (e.g. Cunnighamialanceolata,). Selection criteria include, among others, applicability at a large-scale in sup-tropical China at clearly defined uncertainty, scientifically sound and practical applicability for forest management; and the ability to estimate carbon sequestration in forest ecosystems
• Lifecycle analysis of timber and wood products to investigate carbon changes related to forest management changes, timber extraction and changes related to the transformation process into primary wood products.
• Development of an integrated production risk assessment approach considering production and management risks for the most common sub-tropical plantation forest ages and types. The probabilities of particular risk events and their potential significance under different silvicultural management and climate change scenarios will be determined on the basis of existing damage records and our own analysis of damaged stands
• The different models (forest growth model, forest product based accounting model and risk assessment model) will be integrated into a module-based simulation framework addressing C-sequestration as one of multiple objectives of multipurpose forest management.